I Tested MACD Crossover Trading Strategy Indicator for X500 Times – QUANT Analysis Results Were…
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Greetings Trading fans, welcome to the BacktestMachine – a quantitative researcher’s analysis of trading systems.
In this video we’re going to use quantitative data analysis to find out if a simple MACD Crossover system can be profitable.
The quick answer is: Yes it can!
(Above is a direct link to a cumulative Excel spreadsheet with entries, exits and results of 500 trades @ 100 share lots of SPY ($30,000+), QQQ, GLD for 8 month period (December 3, 2019 through August 19, 2020). Both real and simulated trades.)
But how do we build this system? Once it’s built, how do we test it? And how many trades will it take to determine this? What kind of accuracy can we expect, and how much profit are we talking about?
Fortunately, I have done the legwork out of tireless research and years of trading, systems design and systems backtesting and this particular system is one that we can build upon or use outright.
The trades used in this study consist of real positions as well as simulated ones ($30,000 and higher SPY positions were taken at 100 shares per trade).
First off, there are thousands of indicators out there, why are we looking at the MACD?
For the uninitiated, the MACD’s technical definition is:
“Developed by Gerald Appel in the late seventies, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA.”
It is a popular indicator not just put into play by retail traders, but by institutional traders alike.
While it is possible to tweak, overlap, and supplement the MACD with an infinite array of indicators, we are going to strip down the MACD to its purest form and use the simplest of trading strategies for this indicator,
Namely, the MACD Crossover.
In this system, a buy signal is initiated when the MACD turns up and crosses above the signal line. Conversely, a sell signal occurs when the MACD turns down and crosses below the signal line.
This is the most rudimentary of MACD systems, but, we will see, even a simple system can be enough to profit from financial systems if executed mechanically, or, without emotion.
For more details about this system, including its exact settings, please feel free to email me at
We will focus on three giant ETFs, namely the SPY, QQQ, and GLD.
By doing so, we gain the liquidity desired if we were to scale upwards with the system, and also get exposure to a multitude of equities at one time.
For this study, we are using 100 share lots and use a 30 minute time frame.
This time frame is one that is heavily watched across many market participants.
Both real positions and simulated positions were made throughout the study.
When going back from December of 2019, we are going to find out that our Simple MACD Crossover system would trigger 500 times.
So, what were the results?
For starters, there was one trade on the SPY that would net over $2200.00!
Let’s watch the video to drill down into the individual stock’s results over 500 trades.
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Macd Crossover Strategy, I Tested MACD Crossover Trading Strategy Indicator for X500 Times – QUANT Analysis Results Were….
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